Here we are, late April, and the 2025-26 Premier League title race is still a three-horse dash, which feels like a throwback to the days before Manchester City’s sustained dominance. Arsenal, currently leading with 78 points from 34 games, hold a slender two-point advantage over Liverpool, who are on 76 points, also from 34 matches. Manchester City, the reigning champions, sit third with 75 points but crucially have a game in hand, meaning their destiny is still firmly in their own hands if they win out. The average title-winning points tally over the last five seasons is 92.4, which suggests all three clubs will need near-perfect finishes to hit that mark.
Liverpool’s run-in looks the most forgiving on paper, with home games against Fulham and Crystal Palace, plus trips to Nottingham Forest and West Ham. Their only real test is an away fixture at Tottenham Hotspur, a ground where they’ve historically struggled, even against less impressive Spurs sides. Jürgen Klopp’s final season has seen them lean heavily on the goals of Darwin Núñez, who has bagged 21 league goals, but their defensive record has been shakier than in past campaigns, conceding 35 goals compared to Arsenal’s 27. The Reds' injury list also remains a concern, particularly in midfield, where Thiago Alcântara has been sidelined since October and Stefan Bajcetic only recently returned from a long-term issue.
Manchester City, meanwhile, face arguably the trickiest final stretch. Their remaining fixtures include a visit to Brighton, a tough away day at Aston Villa, and a home clash against Newcastle United. Their game in hand is a rescheduled trip to face Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, which is never a walk in the park, even with Chelsea's inconsistency. Pep Guardiola’s side has been a machine, as always, with Erling Haaland’s 26 league goals leading the Golden Boot race, but they’ve dropped points in unexpected places this season, drawing against Wolves and losing to West Ham. That's uncharacteristic for a City team that has won 14 consecutive league games to close out a season as recently as 2019. Their squad depth is unparalleled, but even they can look leggy at this stage of a grueling campaign.
Then there’s Arsenal. Mikel Arteta’s Gunners have shown remarkable resilience after last season’s late collapse, but the pressure is building. Their remaining fixtures include a North London Derby away at Tottenham, a home game against Everton, and a tricky trip to Old Trafford to face Manchester United, who, despite their struggles, often raise their game against top opposition. The Gunners’ defensive solidity, anchored by William Saliba and Gabriel, has been their foundation, allowing just 27 goals in 34 games. Martin Ødegaard has been the creative heartbeat, with 10 goals and 8 assists, but the lack of a truly prolific striker compared to Haaland or Núñez might come back to haunt them. Gabriel Jesus has only managed 8 league goals, which isn't title-winning numbers for a main forward.
Here's the thing: Liverpool’s momentum has wavered in recent weeks, drawing against Brentford and losing to Everton, costing them four vital points. That kind of slip-up at this stage is usually fatal. City, despite their imperious form from January to March, looked vulnerable in their Champions League quarter-final exit. Arsenal, though, seems to have learned from their past mistakes, grinding out ugly wins against Wolves and Luton. My hot take? The Gunners are going to bottle it again. They just don't have the mental fortitude yet.
Look, you can point to the 2021-22 season when City won with 93 points, or the 2018-19 campaign when they edged Liverpool by a single point with 98. These are astronomical figures. This season feels different. The top three have all dropped more points than we've seen in previous dominant eras. Whoever wins this year might do it with a lower points tally, perhaps in the high 80s, which would be a stark contrast to recent history. For example, Leicester City won the title with 81 points in 2016.
My bold prediction: Manchester City, despite their tough fixtures, will use their experience and squad depth to win their final five games, including that decisive match against Chelsea, to finish on 90 points and lift the trophy for a record-extending fourth consecutive time.
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